Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 18

Annecy–Guingamp

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 10 January 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Sports, Annecy

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'GuingampR. Ghrieb (assist: J. Siwe)
47'GuingampJ. Siwe (assist: H. Picard)
60'AnnecyJ. Tiendrebeogo (assist: A. Larose)
83'GuingampJunior Armando Mendes (assist: H. Picard)
90+1'GuingampA. Hemia (assist: H. Picard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Annecy		Guingamp
10	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	6
54%	Possession	46%
405	Passes	358
296	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Annecy 1.40 · Guingamp 1.16. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Annecy 10 · Guingamp 15; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

O. Thual→

3.22

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Annecy to win”. Second comes “Guingamp to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Annecy, 1.21 for Guingamp.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 912 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Annecy to win37.6%

Draw29.0%

Guingamp to win33.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Annecy lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time44.5%

Guingamp lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Annecy ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Guingamp ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 912 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Annecy: at least 14Actual: 16
Guingamp: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Annecy: at least 4Actual: 4
Guingamp: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Annecy score1.40

Attack: Annecy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Guingamp's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Guingamp score1.16

Attack: Guingamp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Annecy's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.6%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.