Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 16

Estac Troyes–Martigues

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 December 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Estac TroyesCyriaque Kalou Irié (assist: R. Said)
47'Estac TroyesR. Said (assist: M. Diop)
72'Estac TroyesCyriaque Kalou Irié (assist: M. Adeline)
76'Estac TroyesM. Adeline (assist: I. Boura)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		Martigues
27	Shots	6
15	Shots on target	1
20	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	11
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
552	Passes	444
460	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.82 · Martigues 0.65. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Estac Troyes 27 · Martigues 6; on target 15 and 1.

Referee

O. Thual→

3.27

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.3%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Estac Troyes, 0.74 for Martigues.
The highest double chance value is 88.1% (1X — Estac Troyes win or draw).
These values were computed from 894 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win66.3%

Draw21.8%

Martigues to win11.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Estac Troyes lead at half-time32.0%

Level at half-time47.6%

Martigues lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Martigues ahead68.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 894 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 11Actual: 6
Martigues: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 5Actual: 5
Martigues: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.82

Attack: Estac Troyes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Martigues concede 49% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Martigues score0.65

Attack: Martigues score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.4%1–012.7%1–111.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.