Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 34

Spezia–Cosenza

3–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 13 May 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia

Goals and red cards

14'SpeziaS. Elia
29'SpeziaR. Kouda (assist: L. Vignali)
45+3'SpeziaPio Esposito (penalty)
48'CosenzaG. Artistico (assist: B. Cimino)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spezia		Cosenza
12	Shots	22
6	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
415	Passes	431
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spezia 2.02 · Cosenza 0.71. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Spezia 12 · Cosenza 22; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

D. Di Marco→

4.46

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.7%: “Spezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Spezia, 0.71 for Cosenza.
The highest double chance value is 89.3% (1X — Spezia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,130 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spezia to win68.7%

Draw20.6%

Cosenza to win10.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Spezia lead at half-time38.7%

Level at half-time42.2%

Cosenza lead at half-time19.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Spezia ahead or level80.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Cosenza ahead61.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1130 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spezia: at least 14Actual: 14
Cosenza: at least 15Actual: 6

Corners

Spezia: at least 6Actual: 4
Cosenza: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spezia score2.02

Attack: Spezia score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Cosenza's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cosenza score0.71

Attack: Cosenza score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Spezia's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.8%1–012.6%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.