Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 33

Modena–Sassuolo

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena

Goals and red cards

36'SassuoloD. Berardi
60'ModenaS. Santoro (assist: G. Caso)
64'SassuoloArmand Laurienté (assist: J. Toljan)
76'SassuoloL. Moro (assist: E. Iannoni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Modena		Sassuolo
13	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
521	Passes	447
461	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Modena 1.17 · Sassuolo 1.39. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Modena 13 · Sassuolo 11; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

A. Santoro→

5.40

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “Sassuolo to win”. Second comes “Modena to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Modena, 1.39 for Sassuolo.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,086 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Modena to win30.5%

Draw28.5%

Sassuolo to win41.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Modena lead at half-time27.6%

Level at half-time41.7%

Sassuolo lead at half-time30.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Modena ahead or level69.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Sassuolo ahead72.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1086 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Modena: at least 12Actual: 10
Sassuolo: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Modena: at least 4Actual: 6
Sassuolo: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Modena score1.17

Attack: Modena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sassuolo score1.39

Attack: Sassuolo score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Modena's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.8%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.