Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 27

Cremonese–Cesena

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 February 2025 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

Goals and red cards

14'CesenaGiacomo Calò (assist: A. La Gumina)
40'CremonesePaulo Azzi (assist: M. Castagnetti)
90+4'CesenaS. Bastoni

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cremonese		Cesena
13	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	6
4	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
513	Passes	298
436	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cremonese 1.70 · Cesena 0.80. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Cremonese 13 · Cesena 11; on target 6 and 2.
Cremonese kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

A. Santoro→

5.41

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.8%: “Cremonese to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Cremonese, 0.80 for Cesena.
The highest double chance value is 84.0% (1X — Cremonese win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,025 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cremonese to win58.8%

Draw25.1%

Cesena to win16.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

23	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cremonese win or draw84.0%

12 — any result other than a draw74.9%

X2 — draw or Cesena win41.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Cremonese lead at half-time38.9%

Level at half-time42.2%

Cesena lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Cremonese ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Cesena ahead61.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1025 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cremonese: at least 15Actual: 23
Cesena: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Cremonese: at least 4Actual: 4
Cesena: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cremonese score1.70

Attack: Cremonese score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Cesena's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cesena score0.80

Attack: Cesena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.2%1–112.7%2–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1025 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.