Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Trabzonspor–Sivasspor

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Monday, 20 January 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Papara Park, Trabzon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'TrabzonsporA. Batagov (assist: Ozan Tufan)
13'TrabzonsporS. Banza (assist: B. Mendy)
31'TrabzonsporOzan Tufan (assist: E. Visca)
86'TrabzonsporJ. Lundstram (assist: A. Nwakaeme)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Trabzonspor		Sivasspor
14	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
53%	Possession	47%
533	Passes	474
489	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Trabzonspor 1.94 · Sivasspor 1.00. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Trabzonspor 14 · Sivasspor 12; on target 6 and 3.

Unavailable players

Trabzonspor

D. Dragusout · Muscle Injury
Onuralp Çevikkanout · Finger Injury

Sivasspor

M. Albayrakout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:06.

Referee

Z. Küçük→

4.88

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.1%: “Trabzonspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for Trabzonspor, 1.08 for Sivasspor.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Trabzonspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 872 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Trabzonspor to win62.1%

Draw21.3%

Sivasspor to win16.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Trabzonspor lead at half-time41.1%

Level at half-time41.0%

Sivasspor lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Trabzonspor ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Sivasspor ahead58.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 871 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Trabzonspor: at least 13Actual: 20
Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Trabzonspor: at least 6Actual: 7
Sivasspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.94

Attack: Trabzonspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sivasspor score1.00

Attack: Sivasspor score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.3%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.