Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 16

Spezia–Cittadella

5–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 December 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia

Goals and red cards

34'SpeziaPio Esposito
43'SpeziaE. Kastrati (own goal)
45+3'SpeziaSalvatore Esposito (penalty)
53'SpeziaSalvatore Esposito
67'SpeziaP. Wiśniewski (assist: Salvatore Esposito)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spezia		Cittadella
18	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	4
1	Offsides	4
54%	Possession	46%
367	Passes	315
295	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spezia 1.64 · Cittadella 0.75. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Spezia 18 · Cittadella 8; on target 10 and 2.

Referee

D. Rutella→

6.32

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.7%: “Spezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Spezia, 0.75 for Cittadella.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (1X — Spezia win or draw).
These values were computed from 916 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spezia to win58.7%

Draw25.8%

Cittadella to win15.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	22

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Spezia lead at half-time41.5%

Level at half-time43.5%

Cittadella lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Spezia ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Cittadella ahead58.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 916 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spezia: at least 14Actual: 12
Cittadella: at least 17Actual: 22

Corners

Spezia: at least 5Actual: 9
Cittadella: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spezia score1.64

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cittadella's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cittadella score0.75

Attack: Cittadella score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Spezia concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.5%1–112.9%2–012.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.