Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Plymouth–Leeds

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Park, Plymouth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'PlymouthS. Byram (own goal)
53'LeedsW. Gnonto
90+1'LeedsM. Solomon (assist: W. Gnonto)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Plymouth		Leeds
6	Shots	25
0	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	17
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	4
23%	Possession	77%
177	Passes	600
88	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Plymouth 0.63 · Leeds 2.13. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Plymouth 6 · Leeds 25; on target 0 and 4.
Leeds kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

J. Simpson→

4.07

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.7%: “Leeds to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.80 for Plymouth, 2.59 for Leeds.
The highest double chance value is 92.0% (X2 — draw or Leeds win).
These values were computed from 1,644 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Plymouth to win8.0%

Draw15.3%

Leeds to win76.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Plymouth win or draw23.3%

12 — any result other than a draw84.7%

X2 — draw or Leeds win92.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Plymouth lead at half-time9.6%

Level at half-time36.1%

Leeds lead at half-time54.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Plymouth ahead or level45.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.9%

X2 — level or Leeds ahead90.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1644 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Plymouth: at least 11Actual: 16
Leeds: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Plymouth: at least 3Actual: 1
Leeds: at least 6Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals67.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Plymouth score0.63

Attack: Plymouth score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Leeds concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leeds score2.13

Attack: Leeds score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Plymouth concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.13 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.6%0–310.1%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1644 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 91 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.