Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Norwich–Cardiff

4–2

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Carrow Road, Norwich, Norfolk

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'NorwichM. Núñez (assist: J. Stacey)
16'CardiffC. Chambers · red card
17'NorwichM. Núñez
23'NorwichBorja Sainz (assist: M. Núñez)
56'CardiffY. Salech (penalty)
67'NorwichS. Duffy (assist: Jacob Wright)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Norwich		Cardiff
22	Shots	19
8	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	15
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	9
1	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
557	Passes	308
511	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Norwich 1.79 · Cardiff 0.85. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Norwich 22 · Cardiff 19; on target 8 and 6.
Norwich kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

W. Finnie→

4.13

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.6%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for Norwich, 1.00 for Cardiff.
The highest double chance value is 84.2% (1X — Norwich win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,644 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Norwich to win62.6%

Draw21.6%

Cardiff to win15.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

84'CardiffY. Salech (assist: C. O'Dowda)

13	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Norwich win or draw84.2%

12 — any result other than a draw78.4%

X2 — draw or Cardiff win37.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.6%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

Norwich lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time41.7%

Cardiff lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Norwich ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Cardiff ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1644 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Norwich: at least 10Actual: 13
Cardiff: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Norwich: at least 5Actual: 6
Cardiff: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Norwich score1.79

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cardiff concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cardiff score0.85

Attack: Cardiff score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.7%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1644 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.