Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

West Brom–Luton

5–3

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'West BromT. Fellows
9'LutonM. Alli (assist: Thelo Aasgaard)
30'West BromD. Dike (assist: C. Styles)
33'West BromT. Fellows (assist: D. Dike)
57'West BromC. Styles (assist: Darnell Furlong)
61'West BromC. Styles (assist: T. Fellows)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Luton
19	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
547	Passes	265
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.51 · Luton 0.82. On the pitch: 5-3.
Shots West Brom 19 · Luton 12; on target 5 and 4.
West Brom kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

D. Bond→

4.04

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “Luton to win”. Second comes “West Brom to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for West Brom, 1.39 for Luton.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,644 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win30.0%

Draw28.5%

Luton to win41.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

65'LutonJ. Clark (assist: T. Chong)

88'LutonM. Alli (assist: J. Clark)

9	Fouls	22

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — West Brom win or draw58.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.5%

X2 — draw or Luton win70.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.5%).

First half

Actual: 3–1

West Brom lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time44.9%

Luton lead at half-time15.1%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level84.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Luton ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1644 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 9Actual: 9
Luton: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

West Brom: at least 5Actual: 6
Luton: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.51

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Luton's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Luton score0.82

Attack: Luton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–110.0%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1644 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 91 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.