Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Sheffield Wednesday–Portsmouth

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Sheffield WednesdayC. Paterson (assist: S. Armstrong)
23'PortsmouthH. Blair (assist: J. Murphy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Portsmouth
18	Shots	2
5	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
68%	Possession	32%
550	Passes	261
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.67 · Portsmouth 1.13. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 18 · Portsmouth 2; on target 5 and 1.
Sheffield Wednesday kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

L. Doughty→

4.53

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.0%: “Sheffield Wednesday to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.14 for Portsmouth.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Sheffield Wednesday win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,635 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win53.0%

Draw24.7%

Portsmouth to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time28.6%

Level at half-time45.0%

Portsmouth lead at half-time26.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level73.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Portsmouth ahead71.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1635 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 11Actual: 14
Portsmouth: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 5Actual: 5
Portsmouth: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.67

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Portsmouth concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Portsmouth score1.13

Attack: Portsmouth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.8%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.