Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Preston–Plymouth

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'PlymouthM. Bundu (assist: B. Mumba)
75'PlymouthC. Wright (assist: M. Talovierov)
90'PrestonE. Riis (assist: C. Evans)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		Plymouth
20	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
479	Passes	220
364	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.69 · Plymouth 0.88. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Preston 20 · Plymouth 5; on target 7 and 3.
Preston kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

M. Donohue→

4.31

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.3%: “Preston to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Preston, 0.90 for Plymouth.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (1X — Preston win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,635 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win53.3%

Draw26.8%

Plymouth to win19.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Preston lead at half-time46.5%

Level at half-time41.1%

Plymouth lead at half-time12.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level87.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Plymouth ahead53.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1635 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 11Actual: 9
Plymouth: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Preston: at least 5Actual: 9
Plymouth: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.69

Attack: Preston score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Plymouth concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plymouth score0.88

Attack: Plymouth score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–012.5%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.