Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Luton–Coventry

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kenilworth Road, Luton, Bedfordshire

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'CoventryJ. Dasilva · red card
68'LutonL. Walsh · red card
90'LutonS. Baptiste

Match statistics

Match statistics
Luton		Coventry
23	Shots	3
8	Shots on target	0
12	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
18	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
418	Passes	221
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Luton 1.21 · Coventry 1.29. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Luton 23 · Coventry 3; on target 8 and 0.
Luton kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

O. Langford→

3.49

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Luton to win”. Second comes “Coventry to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Luton, 1.21 for Coventry.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,633 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Luton to win39.7%

Draw28.4%

Coventry to win31.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Luton win or draw68.2%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or Coventry win60.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Luton lead at half-time28.7%

Level at half-time45.1%

Coventry lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Luton ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Coventry ahead71.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1633 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Luton: at least 10Actual: 9
Coventry: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Luton: at least 5Actual: 18
Coventry: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Luton score1.21

Attack: Luton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Coventry score1.29

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Luton's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.4%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1633 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 90 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.