Championship · England · Regular Season - 44

Sheffield Wednesday–Middlesbrough

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 21 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'MiddlesbroughF. Azaz (assist: H. Hackney)
54'Sheffield WednesdayJ. Windass (assist: S. Ingelsson)
89'Sheffield WednesdayA. Musaba

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Middlesbrough
25	Shots	16
11	Shots on target	5
19	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	9
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
353	Passes	440
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.43 · Middlesbrough 1.28. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 25 · Middlesbrough 16; on target 11 and 5.
Middlesbrough kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Madley→

4.42

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Middlesbrough to win”. Second comes “Sheffield Wednesday to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.66 for Middlesbrough.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,620 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win32.2%

Draw25.7%

Middlesbrough to win42.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time44.9%

Middlesbrough lead at half-time30.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level69.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Middlesbrough ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1620 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 11Actual: 15
Middlesbrough: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 5Actual: 5
Middlesbrough: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.43

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Middlesbrough's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Middlesbrough score1.28

Attack: Middlesbrough score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–29.8%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.