Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Preston–QPR

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 18 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+5'PrestonL. Lindsay (assist: R. Brady)
80'QPRM. Frey (assist: J. Varane)
90+3'QPRL. Andersen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		QPR
9	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
459	Passes	353
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.27 · QPR 0.99. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Preston 9 · QPR 14; on target 2 and 5.
Preston kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

J. Simpson→

4.10

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Preston to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Preston, 0.99 for QPR.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (1X — Preston win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,609 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win41.7%

Draw30.5%

QPR to win27.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Preston lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time45.5%

QPR lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or QPR ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1609 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 11Actual: 11
QPR: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Preston: at least 4Actual: 4
QPR: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.27

Attack: Preston score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals QPR score0.99

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.6%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.