Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Derby–Luton

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 18 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'LutonM. Alli

Match statistics

Match statistics
Derby		Luton
14	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
308	Passes	228
192	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Derby 1.31 · Luton 0.92. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Derby 14 · Luton 8; on target 5 and 1.
Derby kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

J. Linington→

4.10

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.4%: “Derby to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Derby, 0.94 for Luton.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (1X — Derby win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,608 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Derby to win38.4%

Draw32.2%

Luton to win29.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Derby lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time48.2%

Luton lead at half-time18.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Derby ahead or level81.3%

12 — not level at half-time51.8%

X2 — level or Luton ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1608 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Derby: at least 11Actual: 9
Luton: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Derby: at least 4Actual: 9
Luton: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Derby score1.31

Attack: Derby score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Luton's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Luton score0.92

Attack: Luton score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–013.6%0–012.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.