Championship · England · Regular Season - 41

Oxford United–QPR

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 April 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Kassam Stadium, Oxford, Oxfordshire

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'QPRR. Edwards (assist: N. Madsen)
42'QPRO. Romeny (own goal)
62'Oxford UnitedS. Mills (assist: S. Dembele)
90+1'QPRYang Min-Hyuk (assist: K. Dembele)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		QPR
12	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
403	Passes	382
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 1.15 · QPR 1.10. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Oxford United 12 · QPR 11; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

E. Bell→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Oxford United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Oxford United, 1.00 for QPR.
The highest double chance value is 69.1% (1X — Oxford United win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,593 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win37.4%

Draw31.7%

QPR to win30.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Oxford United lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time46.6%

QPR lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or QPR ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1593 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 10Actual: 14
QPR: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Oxford United: at least 4Actual: 7
QPR: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score1.15

Attack: Oxford United score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals QPR score1.10

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oxford United concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–012.7%0–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.