Championship · England · Regular Season - 40

Plymouth–Norwich

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Park, Plymouth

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'PlymouthR. Hardie (assist: A. Randell)
29'PlymouthR. Hardie (assist: M. Bundu)
46'NorwichJ. Sargent (assist: K. Fisher)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Plymouth		Norwich
8	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
1	Offsides	4
25%	Possession	75%
175	Passes	538
99	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Plymouth 1.06 · Norwich 1.63. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Plymouth 8 · Norwich 9; on target 4 and 4.
Norwich kept the ball more (75%).

Referee

G. Ward→

3.76

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.4%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Plymouth, 1.73 for Norwich.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (X2 — draw or Norwich win).
These values were computed from 1,576 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Plymouth to win21.2%

Draw25.4%

Norwich to win53.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Plymouth lead at half-time21.7%

Level at half-time42.0%

Norwich lead at half-time36.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Plymouth ahead or level63.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Norwich ahead78.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1576 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Plymouth: at least 10Actual: 11
Norwich: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Plymouth: at least 4Actual: 2
Norwich: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Plymouth score1.06

Attack: Plymouth score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Norwich score1.63

Attack: Norwich score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Plymouth concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–210.8%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.