Championship · England · Regular Season - 40

Swansea–Derby

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

79'SwanseaEom Ji-Sung (assist: J. Key)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Derby
3	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	2
2	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
463	Passes	273
349	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 1.46 · Derby 0.95. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Swansea 3 · Derby 12; on target 1 and 2.
Swansea kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

A. Davies→

3.53

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.8%: “Swansea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Swansea, 0.79 for Derby.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (1X — Swansea win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,576 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win43.8%

Draw32.3%

Derby to win23.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Swansea lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time44.5%

Derby lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Derby ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1576 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 8Actual: 7
Derby: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Swansea: at least 5Actual: 4
Derby: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score1.46

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Derby score0.95

Attack: Derby score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.9%1–115.1%0–013.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.