Championship · England · Regular Season - 40

Luton–Leeds

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kenilworth Road, Luton, Bedfordshire

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'LutonI. Jones (assist: J. Clark)
28'LeedsD. James

Match statistics

Match statistics
Luton		Leeds
7	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
34%	Possession	66%
228	Passes	454
133	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Luton 0.79 · Leeds 1.67. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Luton 7 · Leeds 8; on target 3 and 5.
Leeds kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

T. Bramall→

3.88

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.2%: “Leeds to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.86 for Luton, 1.77 for Leeds.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (X2 — draw or Leeds win).
These values were computed from 1,573 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Luton to win16.3%

Draw24.5%

Leeds to win59.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Luton win or draw40.8%

12 — any result other than a draw75.5%

X2 — draw or Leeds win83.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Luton lead at half-time19.1%

Level at half-time44.0%

Leeds lead at half-time36.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Luton ahead or level63.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Leeds ahead80.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1573 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Luton: at least 11Actual: 15
Leeds: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Luton: at least 4
Leeds: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Luton score0.79

Attack: Luton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leeds concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leeds score1.67

Attack: Leeds score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Luton's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%0–112.1%0–211.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1573 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 85 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.