Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Hull City–Luton

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 March 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The MKM Stadium, Hull

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'LutonA. Jones (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Luton
14	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
501	Passes	277
417	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.51 · Luton 0.91. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hull City 14 · Luton 8; on target 3 and 2.
Hull City kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

D. Bond→

4.13

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “Hull City to win”. Second comes “Luton to win” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Hull City, 1.09 for Luton.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,561 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win41.1%

Draw29.4%

Luton to win29.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hull City lead at half-time39.0%

Level at half-time45.2%

Luton lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Luton ahead61.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1561 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 10Actual: 10
Luton: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Hull City: at least 4Actual: 10
Luton: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.51

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Luton's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Luton score0.91

Attack: Luton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.1%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.