Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Watford–Plymouth

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 March 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vicarage Road, Watford

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Watford		Plymouth
17	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
14	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
72%	Possession	28%
569	Passes	221
493	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Watford 1.90 · Plymouth 0.81. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Watford 17 · Plymouth 7; on target 1 and 1.
Watford kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

R. Ricardo→

2.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.9%: “Watford to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Watford, 0.83 for Plymouth.
The highest double chance value is 83.8% (1X — Watford win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,561 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Watford to win58.9%

Draw24.8%

Plymouth to win16.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Watford win or draw83.8%

12 — any result other than a draw75.2%

X2 — draw or Plymouth win41.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Watford lead at half-time44.8%

Level at half-time41.4%

Plymouth lead at half-time13.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Watford ahead or level86.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Plymouth ahead55.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1561 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Watford: at least 11Actual: 11
Plymouth: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Watford: at least 6Actual: 14
Plymouth: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Watford score1.90

Attack: Watford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Plymouth concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plymouth score0.81

Attack: Plymouth score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Watford's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.6%1–112.6%2–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1561 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 84 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.