Championship · England · Regular Season - 35

Hull City–Plymouth

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 4 March 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The MKM Stadium, Hull

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Hull CityJ. Gelhardt
61'Hull CityA. Kamara (assist: Joao Pedro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Plymouth
11	Shots	3
5	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
373	Passes	405
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.82 · Plymouth 0.82. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Hull City 11 · Plymouth 3; on target 5 and 0.

Referee

A. Davies→

3.48

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.7%: “Hull City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Hull City, 0.80 for Plymouth.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (1X — Hull City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win59.7%

Draw24.8%

Plymouth to win15.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hull City lead at half-time50.0%

Level at half-time39.9%

Plymouth lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Plymouth ahead50.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1520 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 10Actual: 11
Plymouth: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Hull City: at least 6Actual: 7
Plymouth: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.82

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Plymouth concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plymouth score0.82

Attack: Plymouth score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hull City's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.2%1–112.5%2–012.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.