Championship · England · Regular Season - 35

Oxford United–Coventry

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 March 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Kassam Stadium, Oxford, Oxfordshire

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'CoventryJ. Rudoni (assist: T. Sakamoto)
53'Oxford UnitedO. Romeny (assist: P. Placheta)
58'CoventryE. Mason-Clark
62'Oxford UnitedE. Moore (assist: T. Goodrham)
71'CoventryT. Sakamoto (assist: J. Bidwell)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		Coventry
10	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	16
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	11
3	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
343	Passes	351
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 1.05 · Coventry 1.45. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Oxford United 10 · Coventry 18; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

J. Simpson→

3.86

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Oxford United, 1.55 for Coventry.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (X2 — draw or Coventry win).
These values were computed from 1,513 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win23.4%

Draw27.3%

Coventry to win49.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Oxford United lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time44.9%

Coventry lead at half-time28.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level71.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Coventry ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1513 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 9Actual: 14
Coventry: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Oxford United: at least 4Actual: 3
Coventry: at least 5Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score1.05

Attack: Oxford United score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Coventry score1.45

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%0–111.1%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.