Championship · England · Regular Season - 28

Hull City–QPR

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 January 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The MKM Stadium, Hull

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'QPRKenneth Paal
70'QPRK. Saito
84'Hull CityJ. Gelhardt

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		QPR
12	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
406	Passes	395
312	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.41 · QPR 0.95. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Hull City 12 · QPR 8; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

B. Speedie→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Hull City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Hull City, 1.02 for QPR.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (1X — Hull City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,427 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win43.4%

Draw29.4%

QPR to win27.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hull City lead at half-time39.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

QPR lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or QPR ahead60.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1427 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 10Actual: 14
QPR: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Hull City: at least 5Actual: 4
QPR: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.41

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals QPR score0.95

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.8%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.