Championship · England · Regular Season - 26

QPR–Luton

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 6 January 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'QPRM. Frey
45+2'LutonM. McGuinness (assist: Z. Nelson)
62'QPRM. Fox (assist: I. Chair)

Match statistics

Match statistics
QPR		Luton
15	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
418	Passes	372
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: QPR 1.34 · Luton 0.99. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots QPR 15 · Luton 18; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

A. Davies→

3.50

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.0%: “QPR to win”. Second comes “Luton to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for QPR, 1.07 for Luton.
The highest double chance value is 69.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,411 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

QPR to win39.0%

Draw30.2%

Luton to win30.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

QPR lead at half-time32.2%

Level at half-time45.3%

Luton lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — QPR ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Luton ahead67.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1411 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

QPR: at least 10Actual: 10
Luton: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

QPR: at least 5Actual: 3
Luton: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals QPR score1.34

Attack: QPR score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Luton's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Luton score0.99

Attack: Luton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–011.4%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.