Championship · England · Regular Season - 25

Cardiff–Coventry

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 1 January 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'CardiffA. Robertson (assist: Cian Ashford)
46'CoventryT. Sakamoto
47'CardiffC. Robinson · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cardiff		Coventry
12	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	9
5	Offsides	0
27%	Possession	73%
203	Passes	536
130	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cardiff 1.14 · Coventry 1.48. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Cardiff 12 · Coventry 17; on target 2 and 7.
Coventry kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

G. Eltringham→

3.91

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Cardiff, 1.38 for Coventry.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (X2 — draw or Coventry win).
These values were computed from 1,391 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cardiff to win28.8%

Draw28.8%

Coventry to win42.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cardiff lead at half-time34.0%

Level at half-time42.4%

Coventry lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cardiff ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Coventry ahead66.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1391 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cardiff: at least 9Actual: 8
Coventry: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Cardiff: at least 5Actual: 6
Coventry: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cardiff score1.14

Attack: Cardiff score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Coventry score1.48

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Cardiff concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–110.6%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.