Championship · England · Regular Season - 24

Derby–Leeds

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 29 December 2024 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

79'LeedsB. Aaronson (assist: J. Piroe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Derby		Leeds
4	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	9
0	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
272	Passes	439
177	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Derby 0.92 · Leeds 1.38. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Derby 4 · Leeds 17; on target 1 and 6.
Leeds kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Davies→

3.53

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.1%: “Leeds to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.75 for Derby, 1.66 for Leeds.
The highest double chance value is 84.6% (X2 — draw or Leeds win).
These values were computed from 1,386 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Derby to win15.4%

Draw25.6%

Leeds to win59.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Derby lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time43.5%

Leeds lead at half-time30.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Derby ahead or level69.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Leeds ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1386 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Derby: at least 12Actual: 14
Leeds: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Derby: at least 4Actual: 2
Leeds: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Derby score0.92

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leeds concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leeds score1.38

Attack: Leeds score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.3%1–112.8%0–212.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.