Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Gaziantep FK–Bodrum FK

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 January 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gaziantep FK		Bodrum FK
10	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
4	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
481	Passes	354
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gaziantep FK 1.53 · Bodrum FK 1.08. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Gaziantep FK 10 · Bodrum FK 11; on target 3 and 4.
Gaziantep FK kept the ball more (58%).

Unavailable players

Gaziantep FK

E. Saboritout · Ankle Injury
G. Stephenout · Leg Injury

Bodrum FK

M. Erdilmanout · Knee Injury
S. Özdamarout · Ankle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:06.

Referee

M. Metoğlu→

5.49

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Gaziantep FK to win”. Second comes “Bodrum FK to win” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Gaziantep FK, 1.21 for Bodrum FK.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 866 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gaziantep FK to win42.0%

Draw27.8%

Bodrum FK to win30.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gaziantep FK lead at half-time41.7%

Level at half-time41.8%

Bodrum FK lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Gaziantep FK ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Bodrum FK ahead58.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 865 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gaziantep FK: at least 11Actual: 9
Bodrum FK: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Gaziantep FK: at least 4Actual: 5
Bodrum FK: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gaziantep FK score1.53

Attack: Gaziantep FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.08

Attack: Bodrum FK score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gaziantep FK's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.8%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.