1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 38

Yeni Malatyaspor–Gençlerbirliği S.K.

0–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Malatya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Gençlerbirliği S.K.D. Popa (assist: M. Nalepa)
9'Gençlerbirliği S.K.D. Popa (assist: Amilton)
50'Gençlerbirliği S.K.S. Osmanoglu (assist: Fıratcan Üzüm)
63'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Léo Gaúcho (assist: Metehan Mimaroğlu)
88'Gençlerbirliği S.K.G. Altıparmak (assist: Fıratcan Üzüm)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Yeni Malatyaspor		Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4	Shots	25
1	Shots on target	15
2	Shots inside the box	20
10	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	10
0	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
375	Passes	564
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Yeni Malatyaspor 0.09 · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3.23. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Yeni Malatyaspor 4 · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 25; on target 1 and 15.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

S. Bahadır→

3.07

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 95.9%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 3.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.09 for Yeni Malatyaspor, 3.23 for Gençlerbirliği S.K..
The highest double chance value is 99.7% (X2 — draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K. win).
These values were computed from 988 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Yeni Malatyaspor to win0.3%

Draw3.9%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win95.9%

Both teams to score8.3%

4	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time3.3%

Level at half-time27.1%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time69.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Yeni Malatyaspor ahead or level30.4%

12 — not level at half-time72.9%

X2 — level or Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead96.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 988 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 10Actual: 4
Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2Actual: 1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 6Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.09

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (68% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K. concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score3.23

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 172% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–321.6%0–219.3%0–417.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.