1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Keçiörengücü–Ankaragücü

2–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aktepe Stadı, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'KeçiörengücüSteven Caulker · red card
42'AnkaragücüOwusu (assist: D. Rotariu)
45'KeçiörengücüUğur Kaan Yıldız (assist: E. Rroca)
62'AnkaragücüOwusu (penalty)
65'AnkaragücüR. Cephas (assist: N. Schulz)
85'Keçiörengücü

Match statistics

Match statistics
Keçiörengücü		Ankaragücü
7	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	1
3	Offsides	4
54%	Possession	46%
472	Passes	411
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Keçiörengücü 1.53 · Ankaragücü 1.11. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Keçiörengücü 7 · Ankaragücü 12; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

B. Olcar→

3.90

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “Keçiörengücü to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Keçiörengücü, 1.11 for Ankaragücü.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (1X — Keçiörengücü win or draw).
These values were computed from 978 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Keçiörengücü to win46.4%

Draw27.4%

Ankaragücü to win26.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

O. Nahırcı · red card

90+8'KeçiörengücüUğur Kaan Yıldız (assist: S. Luş)

7	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	0

2	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Keçiörengücü win or draw73.8%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or Ankaragücü win53.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time41.1%

Ankaragücü lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Keçiörengücü ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Ankaragücü ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 978 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Keçiörengücü: at least 12Actual: 7
Ankaragücü: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Keçiörengücü: at least 4Actual: 3
Ankaragücü: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.53

Attack: Keçiörengücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ankaragücü's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ankaragücü score1.11

Attack: Ankaragücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–110.2%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 978 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 36 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.