1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Erzurumspor FK–Ümraniyespor

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Erzurumspor FKG. Crociata
46'Erzurumspor FKE. Tozlu (assist: G. Crociata)
90+2'ÜmraniyesporB. Ekincier · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Erzurumspor FK		Ümraniyespor
8	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	3
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
303	Passes	403
226	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK 1.39 · Ümraniyespor 0.86. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Erzurumspor FK 8 · Ümraniyespor 9; on target 6 and 4.
Ümraniyespor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

T. Doman→

3.93

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.8%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Erzurumspor FK, 0.86 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Erzurumspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 978 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Erzurumspor FK to win48.8%

Draw29.3%

Ümraniyespor to win22.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time48.9%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time20.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Erzurumspor FK ahead or level79.1%

12 — not level at half-time51.1%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 978 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Erzurumspor FK: at least 13Actual: 14
Ümraniyespor: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Erzurumspor FK: at least 4Actual: 3
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.39

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score0.86

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–014.0%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.