1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Sakaryaspor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'Gençlerbirliği S.K.D. Popa (assist: S. Osmanoglu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Sakaryaspor
13	Shots	2
6	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
317	Passes	394
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.76 · Sakaryaspor 0.86. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 13 · Sakaryaspor 2; on target 6 and 1.
Sakaryaspor kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Z. Küçük→

4.98

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.7%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 0.86 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 83.4% (1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 978 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win58.7%

Draw24.7%

Sakaryaspor to win16.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time40.9%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time16.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level84.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 978 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 12Actual: 19
Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 8
Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.76

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score0.86

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K. concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–012.1%2–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.