1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 36

Kocaelispor–Boluspor

3–4

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'BolusporF. Hasani (assist: P. Mukairu)
19'BolusporK. Aleksić (assist: D. Liço)
38'KocaelisporS. Yalçın (assist: R. Mendes)
44'BolusporF. Hasani (assist: I. Karaogul)
54'KocaelisporO. Çağlayan (assist: R. Mendes)
60'KocaelisporA. Sağat

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kocaelispor		Boluspor
21	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	7
15	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
474	Passes	358
406	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kocaelispor 1.63 · Boluspor 0.89. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots Kocaelispor 21 · Boluspor 14; on target 7 and 7.
Kocaelispor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

E. Mertoğlu→

3.97

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.7%: “Kocaelispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Kocaelispor, 0.89 for Boluspor.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (1X — Kocaelispor win or draw).
These values were computed from 968 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kocaelispor to win54.7%

Draw26.3%

Boluspor to win19.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Kocaelispor lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time44.7%

Boluspor lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Kocaelispor ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Boluspor ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 968 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kocaelispor: at least 13Actual: 11
Boluspor: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Kocaelispor: at least 4Actual: 5
Boluspor: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kocaelispor score1.63

Attack: Kocaelispor score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Boluspor concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boluspor score0.89

Attack: Boluspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–012.5%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.