1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 36

Şanlıurfaspor–Manisa F.K.

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu, Şanlıurfa

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'Manisa F.K.O. Gürbulak (assist: M. Fofana)
51'Manisa F.K.B. Osuji (assist: M. Fofana)
61'ŞanlıurfasporB. J. Sambou (assist: Cagri Giritlioglu)
90+6'Manisa F.K.Dani Ramírez (assist: M. Kiprit)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Şanlıurfaspor		Manisa F.K.
16	Shots	5
2	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	0
3	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
425	Passes	387
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Şanlıurfaspor 1.47 · Manisa F.K. 1.16. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Şanlıurfaspor 16 · Manisa F.K. 5; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

G. Hasova→

5.32

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “Şanlıurfaspor to win”. Second comes “Manisa F.K. to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Şanlıurfaspor, 1.16 for Manisa F.K..
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 968 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Şanlıurfaspor to win43.5%

Draw27.8%

Manisa F.K. to win28.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time36.2%

Level at half-time42.2%

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time21.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Şanlıurfaspor ahead or level78.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Manisa F.K. ahead63.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 968 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Şanlıurfaspor: at least 10Actual: 19
Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Şanlıurfaspor: at least 4
Manisa F.K.: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score1.47

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.16

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.9%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.