1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 36

Ümraniyespor–Amed

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'AmedO. Cekdar · red card
40'ÜmraniyesporBenny (assist: O. Yildirim)
52'ÜmraniyesporB. Oksuz (assist: Benny)
58'ÜmraniyesporEngjell Hoti (assist: P. Yıldırım)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ümraniyespor		Amed
9	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
460	Passes	381
388	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ümraniyespor 1.12 · Amed 1.14. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Ümraniyespor 9 · Amed 12; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

B. Olcar→

3.90

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.3%: “Amed to win”. Second comes “Ümraniyespor to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Ümraniyespor, 1.14 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 69.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 968 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ümraniyespor to win34.0%

Draw30.8%

Amed to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time25.7%

Level at half-time48.0%

Amed lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Ümraniyespor ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Amed ahead74.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 968 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ümraniyespor: at least 12Actual: 19
Amed: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 4
Amed: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.12

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.14

Attack: Amed score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–111.1%1–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.