1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 36

Yeni Malatyaspor–Iğdır FK

0–9

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Malatya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Iğdır FKG. Bruno (penalty)
9'Iğdır FKA. Regattin (assist: D. Avramovski)
31'Iğdır FKA. Öztürk (assist: V. Eysseric)
50'Iğdır FKG. Bruno (assist: Caner Cavlan)
52'Iğdır FKA. Engin (assist: Caner Cavlan)
67'Iğdır FKG. Bruno

Match statistics

Match statistics
Yeni Malatyaspor		Iğdır FK
6	Shots	21
1	Shots on target	12
4	Shots inside the box	16
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	12
2	Offsides	2
26%	Possession	74%
175	Passes	506
115	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Yeni Malatyaspor 0.24 · Iğdır FK 2.66. On the pitch: 0-9.
Shots Yeni Malatyaspor 6 · Iğdır FK 21; on target 1 and 12.
Iğdır FK kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

T. Doman→

3.93

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 89.5%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.24 for Yeni Malatyaspor, 2.66 for Iğdır FK.
The highest double chance value is 98.5% (X2 — draw or Iğdır FK win).
These values were computed from 968 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Yeni Malatyaspor to win1.5%

Draw9.0%

Iğdır FK to win89.5%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time2.9%

Level at half-time28.6%

Iğdır FK lead at half-time68.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Yeni Malatyaspor ahead or level31.5%

12 — not level at half-time71.4%

X2 — level or Iğdır FK ahead97.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 968 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 11Actual: 14
Iğdır FK: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2Actual: 3
Iğdır FK: at least 6Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.24

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (68% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Iğdır FK score2.66

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 158% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–220.4%0–318.3%0–114.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.