1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 35

Keçiörengücü–Ümraniyespor

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aktepe Stadı, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'ÜmraniyesporDimitri Cavaré (assist: Engjell Hoti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Keçiörengücü		Ümraniyespor
8	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
353	Passes	484
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Keçiörengücü 1.61 · Ümraniyespor 0.98. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Keçiörengücü 8 · Ümraniyespor 16; on target 3 and 4.
Ümraniyespor kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

D. Çelik→

5.22

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Keçiörengücü to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Keçiörengücü, 0.98 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (1X — Keçiörengücü win or draw).
These values were computed from 963 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Keçiörengücü to win52.0%

Draw26.6%

Ümraniyespor to win21.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time44.2%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Keçiörengücü ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 963 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Keçiörengücü: at least 11Actual: 13
Ümraniyespor: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Keçiörengücü: at least 4Actual: 6
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.61

Attack: Keçiörengücü score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score0.98

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–011.3%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.