1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 35

Pendikspor–Şanlıurfaspor

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'ŞanlıurfasporK. Wriedt (assist: Amar Begić)
88'ŞanlıurfasporU. Ogundu (assist: B. J. Sambou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pendikspor		Şanlıurfaspor
10	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
9	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
520	Passes	285
461	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pendikspor 1.51 · Şanlıurfaspor 0.99. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Pendikspor 10 · Şanlıurfaspor 13; on target 1 and 4.
Pendikspor kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. Kardeşler→

3.92

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Pendikspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Pendikspor, 0.99 for Şanlıurfaspor.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Pendikspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 960 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pendikspor to win48.7%

Draw27.8%

Şanlıurfaspor to win23.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	3

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Pendikspor lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time44.0%

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Pendikspor ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Şanlıurfaspor ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 960 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pendikspor: at least 12Actual: 12
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 10Actual: 3

Corners

Pendikspor: at least 4Actual: 9
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pendikspor score1.51

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score0.99

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.6%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.