1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 35

Manisa F.K.–Ankaragücü

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 18 April 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Manisa F.K.G. Minchev (assist: O. Gürbulak)
45'Manisa F.K.B. Göçmen (assist: O. Gürbulak)
54'AnkaragücüOwusu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Ankaragücü
8	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
312	Passes	510
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.50 · Ankaragücü 1.20. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Manisa F.K. 8 · Ankaragücü 13; on target 5 and 4.
Ankaragücü kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Ç. Altay→

4.60

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.3%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “Ankaragücü to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Manisa F.K., 1.20 for Ankaragücü.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 958 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win43.3%

Draw27.5%

Ankaragücü to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time34.6%

Level at half-time41.2%

Ankaragücü lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Ankaragücü ahead65.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 958 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 15
Ankaragücü: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 3Actual: 5
Ankaragücü: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.50

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ankaragücü's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ankaragücü score1.20

Attack: Ankaragücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.9%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.