1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Şanlıurfaspor–Amed

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu, Şanlıurfa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'AmedA. Traoré (assist: O. Cekdar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Şanlıurfaspor		Amed
18	Shots	19
7	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
338	Passes	544
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Şanlıurfaspor 1.12 · Amed 1.23. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Şanlıurfaspor 18 · Amed 19; on target 7 and 6.
Amed kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Kayatepe→

3.79

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Amed to win”. Second comes “Şanlıurfaspor to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Şanlıurfaspor, 1.23 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 949 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Şanlıurfaspor to win32.0%

Draw30.0%

Amed to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time25.8%

Level at half-time46.6%

Amed lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Şanlıurfaspor ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Amed ahead74.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 949 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Şanlıurfaspor: at least 11Actual: 11
Amed: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Şanlıurfaspor: at least 3Actual: 5
Amed: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score1.12

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.23

Attack: Amed score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–110.9%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.