1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Pendikspor–Ankaragücü

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 April 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'AnkaragücüOwusu (assist: R. Cephas)
18'PendiksporM. Özdemir (assist: Y. del Valle)
35'PendiksporE. Eze (assist: Đ. Denić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pendikspor		Ankaragücü
13	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
369	Passes	457
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pendikspor 1.41 · Ankaragücü 1.10. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Pendikspor 13 · Ankaragücü 9; on target 4 and 3.
Ankaragücü kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Ö. Turtay→

4.13

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Pendikspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Pendikspor, 1.10 for Ankaragücü.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (1X — Pendikspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 943 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pendikspor to win43.4%

Draw28.5%

Ankaragücü to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Pendikspor lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time43.3%

Ankaragücü lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Pendikspor ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Ankaragücü ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 943 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pendikspor: at least 12Actual: 13
Ankaragücü: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

Pendikspor: at least 4Actual: 5
Ankaragücü: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pendikspor score1.41

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ankaragücü's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ankaragücü score1.10

Attack: Ankaragücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–010.6%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.