1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Ankaragücü–Gençlerbirliği S.K.

0–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Nalepa (assist: Metehan Mimaroğlu)
27'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Metehan Mimaroğlu (assist: A. Babacan)
39'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Léo Gaúcho (assist: Metehan Mimaroğlu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ankaragücü		Gençlerbirliği S.K.
11	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
461	Passes	340
381	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ankaragücü 1.25 · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.13. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Ankaragücü 11 · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 13; on target 6 and 7.
Ankaragücü kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

G. Hasova→

5.44

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “Ankaragücü to win”. Second comes “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Ankaragücü, 1.13 for Gençlerbirliği S.K..
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 937 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ankaragücü to win38.2%

Draw29.8%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win32.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Ankaragücü lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time45.7%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Ankaragücü ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 937 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ankaragücü: at least 10Actual: 14
Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Ankaragücü: at least 5Actual: 7
Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ankaragücü score1.25

Attack: Ankaragücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K. concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.13

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ankaragücü's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.7%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.