1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Çorum FK–Esenler Erokspor

3–3

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Çorum Şehir Stadyumu, Corum

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Esenler EroksporJunior Fernandes (assist: R. Jack)
13'Esenler EroksporO. Kayode
23'Çorum FKF. Yazgan (assist: B. Suleyman)
32'Esenler EroksporJunior Fernandes (penalty)
47'Çorum FKA. Akkaynak
88'Çorum FKF. Yazgan
90+9'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Çorum FK		Esenler Erokspor
17	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
447	Passes	359
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Çorum FK 1.60 · Esenler Erokspor 1.03. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Çorum FK 17 · Esenler Erokspor 8; on target 9 and 5.
Çorum FK kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Saka→

3.87

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.2%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Çorum FK, 1.03 for Esenler Erokspor.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — Çorum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 933 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Çorum FK to win50.2%

Draw26.7%

Esenler Erokspor to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

6	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–3

Çorum FK lead at half-time40.3%

Level at half-time41.9%

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Çorum FK ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Esenler Erokspor ahead59.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 933 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Çorum FK: at least 11Actual: 7
Esenler Erokspor: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Çorum FK: at least 4Actual: 6
Esenler Erokspor: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Çorum FK score1.60

Attack: Çorum FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.03

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–010.7%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.