1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 31

Esenler Erokspor–Ankaragücü

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Monday, 31 March 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Esenler EroksporJunior Fernandes (assist: S. Aytac)
28'AnkaragücüSeyfettin Anıl Yaşar (own goal)
35'Esenler EroksporO. Kayode (assist: Junior Fernandes)
69'Esenler EroksporJunior Fernandes
74'AnkaragücüM. Cetin · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Ankaragücü
10	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
5	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
380	Passes	432
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.39 · Ankaragücü 1.20. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 10 · Ankaragücü 12; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

F. Aksuoğlu→

3.10

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “Ankaragücü to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.20 for Ankaragücü.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 926 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win40.5%

Draw28.4%

Ankaragücü to win31.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time45.3%

Ankaragücü lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Ankaragücü ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 926 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 11Actual: 11
Ankaragücü: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 3Actual: 4
Ankaragücü: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.39

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ankaragücü's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ankaragücü score1.20

Attack: Ankaragücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–09.5%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.