1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 31

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Şanlıurfaspor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

78'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Metehan Mimaroğlu (assist: B. Çağıran)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Şanlıurfaspor
16	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	5
55%	Possession	45%
479	Passes	382
393	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.57 · Şanlıurfaspor 0.87. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 16 · Şanlıurfaspor 8; on target 6 and 1.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Şen→

4.34

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 0.87 for Şanlıurfaspor.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 920 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win53.6%

Draw27.0%

Şanlıurfaspor to win19.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time44.7%

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Şanlıurfaspor ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 920 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 12Actual: 10
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 4
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.57

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score0.87

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K. concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–013.0%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.