1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Sakaryaspor–Yeni Malatyaspor

5–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'SakaryasporM. Mamadou (assist: Ö. Şişmanoğlu)
41'SakaryasporG. Kakuta
45+1'SakaryasporÖ. Şişmanoğlu (assist: G. Kakuta)
86'SakaryasporE. Altıntaş
90'SakaryasporE. Demir (assist: G. Kakuta)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sakaryaspor		Yeni Malatyaspor
22	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	0
18	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	0
1	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
612	Passes	373
546	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sakaryaspor 3.26 · Yeni Malatyaspor 0.04. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Sakaryaspor 22 · Yeni Malatyaspor 3; on target 7 and 0.
Sakaryaspor kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

E. Mertoğlu→

4.15

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 96.6%: “Sakaryaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 3.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.26 for Sakaryaspor, 0.04 for Yeni Malatyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 99.9% (1X — Sakaryaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 912 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sakaryaspor to win96.6%

Draw3.3%

Yeni Malatyaspor to win0.1%

Both teams to score3.6%

12	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time67.5%

Level at half-time28.8%

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time3.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor ahead or level96.4%

12 — not level at half-time71.2%

X2 — level or Yeni Malatyaspor ahead32.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 912 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sakaryaspor: at least 12Actual: 12
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Sakaryaspor: at least 6
Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sakaryaspor score3.26

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 151% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.04

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (66% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–022.7%2–020.1%4–018.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.