1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Manisa F.K.–Pendikspor

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Manisa F.K.G. Minchev (assist: M. Fofana)
74'Manisa F.K.G. Minchev (assist: M. Fofana)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Pendikspor
8	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
344	Passes	480
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.47 · Pendikspor 1.12. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Manisa F.K. 8 · Pendikspor 13; on target 4 and 4.
Pendikspor kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

F. Aksuoğlu→

3.11

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.6%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Manisa F.K., 1.12 for Pendikspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 910 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win44.6%

Draw27.9%

Pendikspor to win27.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw72.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Pendikspor win55.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time23.3%

Level at half-time42.2%

Pendikspor lead at half-time34.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level65.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Pendikspor ahead76.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 910 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 10
Pendikspor: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 3
Pendikspor: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.47

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pendikspor score1.12

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.2%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 910 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 62 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.