1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 29

Yeni Malatyaspor–Ümraniyespor

0–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Malatya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'ÜmraniyesporLucas João (assist: E. Kaplan)
24'ÜmraniyesporB. Oksuz (assist: Benny)
83'ÜmraniyesporB. Celik
87'ÜmraniyesporB. Celik (assist: P. Yıldırım)
90+4'ÜmraniyesporP. Yıldırım (assist: A. Babacan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Yeni Malatyaspor		Ümraniyespor
3	Shots	23
2	Shots on target	10
1	Shots inside the box	17
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
311	Passes	494
220	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Yeni Malatyaspor 0.42 · Ümraniyespor 2.35. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Yeni Malatyaspor 3 · Ümraniyespor 23; on target 2 and 10.
Ümraniyespor kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

B. Olcar→

4.11

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.8%: “Ümraniyespor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.42 for Yeni Malatyaspor, 2.35 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 95.8% (X2 — draw or Ümraniyespor win).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Yeni Malatyaspor to win4.2%

Draw14.0%

Ümraniyespor to win81.8%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Yeni Malatyaspor lead at half-time1.3%

Level at half-time28.7%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time70.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Yeni Malatyaspor ahead or level30.0%

12 — not level at half-time71.3%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead98.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 11Actual: 10
Ümraniyespor: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Yeni Malatyaspor: at least 2Actual: 2
Ümraniyespor: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Yeni Malatyaspor score0.42

Attack: Yeni Malatyaspor score below the league average (65% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score2.35

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Yeni Malatyaspor concede 145% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–218.0%0–314.1%0–114.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.