1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 29

Iğdır FK–Şanlıurfaspor

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'ŞanlıurfasporB. J. Sambou (assist: U. Ogundu)
60'ŞanlıurfasporU. Ogundu (assist: E. Tokotaev)
75'Iğdır FKA. Engin (assist: Caner Cavlan)
90+14'Iğdır FKG. Bruno (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Iğdır FK		Şanlıurfaspor
15	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	10
10	Shots inside the box	9
8	Goalkeeper saves	1
11	Corners	3
3	Offsides	4
73%	Possession	27%
528	Passes	206
443	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Iğdır FK 1.29 · Şanlıurfaspor 0.91. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Iğdır FK 15 · Şanlıurfaspor 13; on target 2 and 10.
Iğdır FK kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

D. Çelik→

5.06

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.7%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Iğdır FK, 0.91 for Şanlıurfaspor.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (1X — Iğdır FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 898 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Iğdır FK to win44.7%

Draw30.3%

Şanlıurfaspor to win25.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Iğdır FK lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time46.8%

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Iğdır FK ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Şanlıurfaspor ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 898 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Iğdır FK: at least 12Actual: 9
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Iğdır FK: at least 4Actual: 11
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Iğdır FK score1.29

Attack: Iğdır FK score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score0.91

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–013.6%0–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.